I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I think Google’s Android operating system is the future for mobile devices like smart phones. That’s not to say that Apple’s iPhone isn’t a great device. It is. Touch screen phones wouldn’t be what they are today without Apple pushing the envelope in the last few years, but, the iPhone has one big problem. Apple. Apple has created a closed system, and, while that closed system has allowed Apple to produce a great product thus far, it will ultimately be the reason that Android surpasses the iPhone.

Android is a great operating system for mobile devices. There are some aspects that aren’t quite as polished yet, but overall, It has significantly closed the lead that Apple has had in terms of functionality, quality, and user experience. The openness of the Android platform is what I think will propel it into the lead over the next two years.

Google makes Android available to any device manufacturer that wants to use it. There are no licensing fees, there is no exclusive carrier, and developers don’t have to jump through hoops to get their applications approved.

Apple has had a long head start, but since November, we have seen a number of new Android based devices become available. Sprint has picked up the Hero and the Moment, Verizon now has the DROD and DROID Eris, Tmobile has the G1, MyTouch, and the Cliq. Tmobile is also the carrier partner for Google’s own Nexus One, the new flagship Android “superphone” as Google calls it. AT&T has plans to launch their Android devices sometime in the first half of 2010.

Moving forward, I don’t see how Apple will be able to maintain the lead overall. The iPhone may continue to be a best seller when comparing sales of individual handset models, but I think that the Android platform as a whole will overtake Apple’s market share when looking at the combined number of handsets sold across every manufacturer and carrier.

There is one major problem that Google may face with Android. The problem, as I see it, is that wireless carriers move at a glacial pace compared to Google. Android 1.0 was released in September of 2008. In just over a year, we have seen Android advance from 1.0 to 1.5, to 1.6, to 2.0, and now to 2.1. To the carriers, this is incredibly fast, especially considering the amount of time that they take to test new devices on their networks before releasing them to their customers. It can take the better part of a year to design, build, test, and release a device.

The rapid development pace of Android means that by the time a device is released, it’s operating system will likely be out of date. This is already the case with devices like the Hero, Eris, and Moment, which just became available in November of 2009. These three brand new devices were released with Android 1.5. It has been announced that these devices will receive firmware updates to Android 2.1 sometime in the first half of 2010, but a firm date has not been established.

Luckily, in time, I think two things will happen. First, I think that as Android matures, the development pace will begin to slow down a little bit, easing some of the pressure on the carriers. Second, I think the carriers have realized that they can not continue to move at the same pace that they always have and expect to remain competitive.